Modelling the present and future scenario of urban green space vulnerability using PSR based AHP and MLP models in a Metropolitan city Kolkata Municipal Corporation

Urban green spaces, despite their recognized importance for sustainable urban development, face significant challenges to their resilience and viability due to rapid urbanization and various associated pressures. The scientific problem addressed in this paper is the vulnerability of urban green spaces to various stressors, including proximity to settlement, land use and land cover changes, and proximity to roads, among others. Despite their importance, there is a lack of comprehensive assessments and frameworks to systematically evaluate and address this vulnerability. Therefore, this study aims to fill this gap by employing a multi-criteria decision-making framework, namely the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework. By analyzing 10 indicators related to urban green space vulnerability through a pairwise comparison matrix, the study identifies critical factors influencing vulnerability and categorizes urban green spaces into different susceptibility levels. Additionally, the research extends its analysis to future scenario development for the years 2030 and 2040, using a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) based Markov Chain model, incorporating various parameters such as distances from built-up areas, roads, rails, streams, slopes, and elevation. Through these methodologies, the study aims to provide valuable insights to urban planners, policymakers, and environmental practitioners, enabling them to make informed decisions to enhance the resilience and sustainability of urban green spaces and urban areas as a whole.