Trends analysis of Evapotranspiration and responses to soil moisture and wind speed over the Taklimakan Desert, China

The Tarim Basin is a typical hyper-arid area, 57% of which is occupied by the Taklimakan desert. Because evapotranspiration (ET) is a key factor in determining water demand, accurate estimation of ET is critical for efficient water management in arid regions. In this study, the spatiotemporal dynamics of ET across the Tarim Basin from 2001 to 2020 were simulated based on a revised Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) algorithm, and the impacts of driving factors on ET trends in the Taklimakan desert were quantified. The findings indicated that the mean annual ET in the entire basin was slightly greater than that in the desert (302 mm vs. 295 mm), although the decreasing rate of annual ET across the entire basin was slower than that in the desert (−0.27 mm/year vs. −0.50 mm/year). Strong increasing trends were found in croplands, whereas decreasing trends, which accounted for 56.5% of the basin, were primarily concentrated in the central and southern parts of the desert. Correlation analysis revealed that wind speed (WS) and soil moisture (SM) were the dominant factors, with a negative contribution of more than 35% and a positive contribution of more than 45%, respectively, to ET trends. Compared with the ERA5-Land and complementary relationship ET using the extended triple collocation method, SEBS ET provided detailed information and a lower random error standard deviation. Our findings contribute to the understanding of how dominant factors impact ET in hyper-arid regions and provide a reference for water management.