Norm Setting in Times of Crisis: A Time-Series Analysis of the Dynamics Between Media Reporting and Perceived Norms in the Context of the COVID-19 Vaccination Roll-Out

Social norms have great potential for mitigating crisis as people align their prevention behavior with the norms they perceive. However, there is insufficient knowledge of how normative perceptions are formed to exploit this potential. Drawing from agenda-setting theory, the present study examined norm-setting processes of media reporting on perceptions of vaccination norms during the COVID-19 pandemic. It combined data of a continuous content analysis of the salience and valence of the vaccination issue and a weekly repeated cross-sectional survey on perceived descriptive (i.e. perceived prevalence of willingness to get vaccinated) and injunctive vaccination norms (i.e. perceived approval of getting vaccinated) in the Swiss population, from February 2021 to February 2022. Time-series-based regression modeling did not support the hypothesized first-level norm setting—the transfer from issue salience in media to perceived descriptive norms in the population. However, we found evidence for second-level norm setting: Changes in issue valence predicted changes in perceived injunctive norms in the Swiss population. The findings provide unique insights into norm-setting processes and highlight the relevance of monitoring media reporting and public perceptions as a basis for evidence-based crisis communication.