Timing the first emergence and disappearance of global water scarcity
Alleviating water scarcity is at the core of Sustainable Development Goal 6. Yet the timing of water scarcity in its onset and possible relief in different regions of the world due to climate change and changing human population dynamics remains poorly investigated. Here we assess the timing of the first emergence of water scarcity (FirstWS) and disappearance of water scarcity (EndWS), by using ensembles of simulations with six Global Hydrological Models under two representative concentration pathways (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP6.0) combined with two shared socioeconomic pathways (i.e., SSP2, SSP3) for 1901-2090. Historically (1901-2020), FirstWS occurred predominantly in Asia (e.g., China and India) and Africa (e.g., East Africa); the peak time of emerging water scarcity began around the 1980s. Under all the four future RCPs-SSPs scenarios (2021-2090), FirstWS will likely occur mainly in some regions of Africa, for which the newly added area is double that in Asia. On the other hand, EndWS will mostly occur in China after 2050, primarily due to the projected declining population. We, therefore, call for specific attention and effort to adapt to the looming water scarcity in Africa.
Authors
- Junguo Liu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5745-6311)
- Hong Wang
- Yoshihide Wada (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4770-2539)
- Yadu Pokhrel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1367-216X)
- Matti Kummu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5096-0163)
- Simon N. Gosling (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5973-6862)
- He Chen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0004-7017-269X)
- Hong Yang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7810-1624)
- Delong Li (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1050-9794)
- Philippe Ciais
Institutions
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- University of Nottingham (GB)
- Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (FR)
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
- North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power (CN)
- Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR)
- Southern University of Science and Technology (CN)
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (FR)
- Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research (CN)
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (CN)
- King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (SA)
- Michigan State University (US)
- Aalto University (FI)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2024-08-20
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-51302-z
- Citations
- 77
- Primary Topic
- Water resources management and optimization
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 25.86
Funders
- European Commission
- Agence Nationale de la Recherche
- National Natural Science Foundation of China
- Chinese Academy of Sciences