Quantification of Climate Footprints of <i>Vibrio vulnificus</i> in Coastal Human Communities of the United States Gulf Coast

The incidence of vibriosis is rising globally with evidence of climate variability influencing environmental processes that support growth of pathogenic <i>Vibrio spp</i>. The waterborne pathogen, <i>Vibrio vulnificus</i> can invade wounds and has one of the highest case fatality rates in humans. The bacterium cannot be eradicated from the aquatic environment, hence climate driven environmental conditions enhancing growth and dissemination of <i>V</i>. <i>vulnificus</i> need to be understood to provide preemptive assessment of its presence and distribution in aquatic systems. To achieve this objective, satellite remote sensing was employed to quantify the association of sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-<i>a</i> (chl-<i>a</i>) in locations with reported <i>V</i>. <i>vulnificus</i> infections. Monthly analysis was done in two populated regions of the Gulf of Mexico-Tampa Bay, Florida, and Galveston Bay, Texas. Results indicate warm water, characterized by a 2-month lag in SST, high concentration of phytoplankton, proxied for zooplankton using 1 month lagged chl-<i>a</i> values, was statistically linked to higher odds of <i>V</i>. <i>vulnificus</i> infection in the human population. Identification of climate and ecological processes thresholds is concluded to be useful for development of an heuristic prediction system designed to determine risk of infection for coastal populations.