Erosive Rainfall Thresholds Identification Using Statistical Approaches in a Karst Yellow Soil Mountain Erosion-Prone Region in Southwest China

Karst yellow soil is one of the most important cultivated soils in southwest China. At present, only a few studies have dealt with rainfall erosivity and erosive rainfall thresholds in the karst yellow soil region. This paper utilizes statistical methods to identify erosive rainfall thresholds and slope erosion-prone areas in the Qianzhong region. This analysis is based on long-term experimental data from 10 experimental stations and 69 experimental plots within the region in 2006 to 2022. The findings show the following: The rainfall amount threshold was 12.66 mm for woodland plots, 10.57 mm for grassland plots, 9.94 mm for farmland plots, and 8.93 mm for fallow plots. Soil and water conservation measures in forestry and grassland effectively increase the rainfall amount thresholds. Compared to farmland, the rainfall threshold increased by 27.32% for woodland and 6.32% for grassland. Bare land and farmland are erosion-prone areas in the karst yellow soil region. The erosive rainfall thresholds for farmland plots with slopes of 13°, 15°, 20°, 23°, and 25° were 10.41 mm, 10.28 mm, 9.66 mm, 9.52 mm, and 9.15 mm, respectively. With the increase in the 13–25° slope gradient of farmland, the initial rainfall required for runoff generation leads to a reduction. The wrong selection indices (WSI) of all landcover plots were less than 10%, and the efficiency indices (EFF) were between 80.43% and 90.25%. The relative error index (REI) of the erosive rainfall thresholds for all landcover runoff plots was less than 0.50%, very close to 0, indicating that these thresholds have small errors and high accuracy. This study gained a better understanding of natural rainfall-induced erosion characteristics in the study area, determined rainfall thresholds for distinguishing erosive rainfall events from non-erosive across different landcover types, and reduced the workload of calculating rainfall erosivity while enhancing the accuracy of soil erosion forecasting and simulation in the karst mountain yellow soil area.