Rapid lake ice structure changes across Swedish lakes puts public ice safety at risk

Lakes are rapidly losing ice under global warming, but little is known about ice structure changes. Ice structure is a key regulator of ice stability and thus safety, affecting activities on ice. Here, we analysed spatial and temporal variations in ice structure across 21 Swedish lakes, spanning from 55 to 69 °N, and over five decades. We found regional differences in ice structure, with fastest changes occurring in southern Sweden. The stable clear ice layer was particularly sensitive to warming, showing a rapid decline. The number of days when temperatures exceeded the freezing point during the ice cover period was identified as a strong driver for how ice was structured. Since there is a high risk for increased occurrences of unsafe ice conditions under predicted air temperature changes, we recommend re-establishing ice structure monitoring programmes, informing society on the increased risks of being on ice and including ice structure to safety guidelines.