Migration Preferences Under Economic and Geopolitical Uncertainty: An Asymmetric Approach

Abstract This paper aims at assessing asymmetric dynamics among migration preferences and various security and economic factors, focusing on the movements from Syria to Turkey and then to the EU via the Greek sea borders (2010M1−2022M12). We perform an economic analysis by developing a utility model, according to which migration preferences depend on security and employment and empirically test asymmetric responses of migration to corresponding shocks. We contribute to the literature by finding that migration is downwards sticky. Despite that theories of international relations may not be monolithic, the magnitude of security impact on migration implies that the state remains the primary actor responsible for managing this phenomenon, which brings us closer to neo-realism theory of International Relations (IR). Our findings reveal the factors that lead to the downwards stickiness of migration thus contributing to a better understating of the incentives for migration and to the formulation of more efficient policies.