An approach to interpreting natural indicators of the state of space weather to assess the effects of its impact on high-latitude power systems

The dynamic exploration and development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation is inextricably connected with the need to minimize technospheric risks, including those associated with the space weather effects on power equipment systems operated within the boundaries of the auroral oval. At the same time, accompanying monitoring of space weather parameters and geomagnetic field variations in the Arctic is carried out only through a group of satellites and several dozen magnetic stations located mainly in the United States, Canada, northern and central Europe. Obviously, the current situation practically excludes the possibility of promptly diagnostics of the level of geoinduced currents (GIC) for most of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, where in fact the only available indicator of the state of space weather is auroras. In the paper the authors propose an approach to interpreting the manifestation of auroras to assess the effects of space weather on objects and systems of high-latitude infrastructure. Thus, using the example of the “Vykhodnoy” substation of the “Severny Transit” main electrical network, it is shown that when recording auroras in the north, zenith and south, the most probable (averaged over 30 min) GIC level is 0.08, 0.23 and 0.68 A accordingly. In this case, the probability that the average half-hour GIC level will exceed 2 A (in the case of auroras in the north, zenith and south) is ∼6, ∼10 and ∼15%, respectively. In conclusion, ways of modernization and the limits of applicability of the proposed approach are considered.