Evaluating the risk of malaria transmission within the Central African Republic with the goal of stabilising and eliminating the infection

Abstract In this paper, we formulate a multi-compartmental mathematical model for humans and mosquitoes. We construct the system of differential equations for an SEITVR for the human compartment and an SEI for the mosquito compartment. We investigate the outbreak of malaria and its effect on the Central African Republic. The analysis of the compartmental model is carried out using stability analysis and Routh Hurwitz Criterion technique is used to indicate the major impact of the model and to improve the model through minor modifications in the transformation of disease in the population. Our model exhibits two equilibrium points, disease free equilibrium points and endemic equilibrium points. The next generation matrix is used to determine the basic reproduction number R 0 . A new compartmental model was framed and estimated the malaria spread after 2023 in the Central African Republic, which is the novelty of this research. Our main motivation is to make the Central African Republic a malaria free country. A Numerical example are provided to validate our results for both the disease free state and endemic state of each model. We believe that this investigation will be more effective in reducing malaria infection and stop spreading.