A Bayesian Analysis of the Probability of the Origin of Life Per Site Conducive to Abiogenesis

The emergence of life from nonlife, or abiogenesis, remains a fundamental question in scientific inquiry. In this article, we investigate the probability of the origin of life (per conducive site) by leveraging insights from Earth's environments. If life originated endogenously on Earth, its existence is indeed endowed with informative value, although the interpretation of the attendant significance hinges critically upon prior assumptions. By adopting a Bayesian framework, for an agnostic prior, we establish a direct connection between the number of potential locations for abiogenesis on Earth and the probability of life's emergence per site. Our findings suggest that constraints on the availability of suitable environments for the origin(s) of life on Earth may offer valuable insights into the probability of abiogenesis and the frequency of life in the universe.