Escaping the Trap: Adapting the U.S.-China Arms Race to the Dynamics of Artificial Intelligence

The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) has become integral to the defense strategies of major military powers, particularly the U.S. and China, heralding a new era of military innovation. This technological advancement has driven both countries to significantly accelerate their development of intelligent weapon systems, fundamentally reshaping strategic capabilities and defense architectures and profoundly affecting Sino-U.S. strategic relations. The U.S. defense policy explicitly identifies China as a strategic competitor, emphasizing the necessity to maintain a leading position in critical and emerging technologies such as AI. Conversely, China views the U.S. advancements in AI weaponry as efforts to contain its rise and destabilize the international strategic balance. This article examines the transformation of the traditional arms race model in the AI era, highlighting how the new features of AI, such as increased information transfer speed and reassessment of cost-benefit analyses, are reshaping military interactions among great powers. The inability to adapt to these changes could entrap the U.S. and China into a new AI arms competition model, leading to a strategic dilemma. The article concludes with strategies for the U.S. and China to break down traditional tactical choices in the arms race and bypass the five mutually reinforcing traps, enabling competition and cooperation to coexist. This approach aims to rebuild strategic stability, minimize the negative impacts of the AI arms race, and maintain regional and global peace and security.