Forecasting Wheat Production in Libya Using ARIMA Model-ARIMA

The wheat crop is a strategic crop in Libya as a food crop and a raw material for some food industries. The study aimed to predict the amount of wheat production in context of Libya during the next six years from 2023-2028. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model has been used and relied on Food and Agriculture Organization data from the period 19961 to 2022. The study findings indicated that the ARIMA (AR (1), MA (9), MA (12) model was the most appropriate model for forecasting among selected ARIMA models because it had significant coefficients, lowest volatility, highest AdjR2, and lowest AIC. Furthermore, it passed all diagnostic tests, where the residuals are white noise and follow normal distribution. Also, there is no heteroscedasticity in the model and had good predictive ability. Finally, the study concluded that wheat production will witness an upward trend during the forecast period (2023-2028).upward trend during the forecast period (2023-2028).