On Application of Absorbing Markov Chain Model to Determine Students’ Academic Progress: A Case Study of Mathematics Department, Ekiti State University, Nigeria

This paper investigates students’ enrolment pattern and their academic performance as they progress from the point of admission to the point of graduation focusing on the Mathematics Department, Ekiti State University, Ado Ekiti in Nigeria. In this research work the Transition Probability Matrix (TPM) was formulated over sequent periods of academic calendars and the probabilities of absorption that include both the Graduating Students and Withdrawn Students were captured. The paper is geared towards the obtainment of the fundamental matrix that will be employed to determine the anticipated length of stay of students in the institution before graduation. The analysis of the requisites was executed by employing the Markov chain model to student populations at different levels in the University including the freshmen, the sophomore transfers, the junior transfers, and the finalists. This was carried out to estimate the differences in the cohorts' behavior over the entire academic period. Based on the results and findings after the data smoothening, future predictions were made on the enrolment into the department as well as the academic performance of the students. Hinging on the analysis includes some prescriptions such as an intentional increase in the rate of retention of the freshmen and the boost given to the sophomores to take on the area with comparative advantage rather than leaving the institution. Other post-analysis discussions and necessary recommendations are included without overlooking the drawbacks of the results from the analysis.