A retrospective analysis on the effects of climate warming on the pine processionary moth at the southern edge of its range

Ectotherms are largely impacted by extreme climate events, essentially heatwaves. In Tunisia, the pine processionary moth (PPM), Thaumetopoea pityocampa , is a defoliator typically laying eggs in summer. Its geographical range is expanding northwards in Europe while retracting from southern Tunisia where summer temperatures can reach extreme heats. We explored the effects of climate change over the last 30 years on PPM at its southern range edge. We investigated variations of fecundity and causes of egg mortality over time using historical and contemporary collections of egg masses. Due to incomplete historical series, a clustering method was used to group climatically homologous sampling sites and perform allochronic analyses on clusters instead of individual localities. Our results suggest negative effects of summer heat on egg survival, down to 0% hatching rate in one site during a major heatwave. Such high hatching failures resulted partly from high egg sterility and aborted embryos, with little effects of parasitism rate, suggesting heat susceptibility during embryonic development, but our results do not allow distinguishing impeded mating success from failed egg maturation or early embryo death. Decreasing female fecundity was observed in regions where allochronic comparisons were possible, associated with a decrease in parasitism rate, while climatic variability increased. Previous studies have confirmed experimentally the thermal sensitivity of PPM early instars to temperatures observed in the present work, including one population from southern Tunisia. However, further work is required to evaluate the relative importance of warming summers among populations, since the risk of heat stress depends on the phenology of sensitive instars, and populations from the warmest areas may not necessarily be the most vulnerable to climate change if they already evolved phenological heat avoidance. In addition to heat‐induced mortality, the ultimate fitness of heat survivors should also be explored to determine potential carry‐over effects on subsequent life stages.