Climatic Favorability to the Occurrence of Hemileia vastatrix in Apt Areas for the Cultivation of Coffea arabica L. in Brazil

In Brazil, coffee leaf rust (CLR), caused by the fungus Hemileia vastatrix, was first detected in Coffea arabica in January of 1970 in southern Bahia. Now widespread across all cultivation areas, the disease poses a significant threat to coffee production, causing losses of 30–50%. In this context, the objective of this study was to identify and quantify the different classes of occurrence of CLR in areas apt and restricted to the cultivation of Arabica coffee in Brazil for a more informed decision regarding the cultivar to be implanted. The areas of climatic aptitude for Arabica coffee were defined, and then, the climatic favorability for the occurrence of CLR in these areas was evaluated based on climatic data from TerraClimate from 1992 to 2021. The apt areas, apt with some type of irrigation, restricted, and with some type of restriction for the cultivation of Arabica coffee add up to 16.34% of the Brazilian territory. Within this 16.34% of the area of the Brazilian territory, the class of climatic favorability for the occurrence of CLR with greater representation is the favorable one. Currently, the disease is controlled with the use of protective and systemic fungicides, including copper, triazoles, and strobilurins, which must be applied following decision rules that vary according to the risk scenario, and according to the use of resistant cultivars. This study provides a basis for choosing the most suitable cultivars for each region based on the degree of CLR resistance.