Identifying the Nonlinear Impacts of Road Network Topology and Built Environment on the Potential Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction of Dockless Bike-Sharing Trips: A Case Study of Shenzhen, China

Existing studies have limited evidence about the complex nonlinear impact mechanism of road network topology and built environment on bike-sharing systems’ greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction benefits. To fill this gap, we examine the nonlinear effects of road network topological attributes and built environment elements on the potential GHG emission reduction of dockless bike-sharing (DBS) trips in Shenzhen, China. Various methods are employed in the research framework of this study, including a GHG emission reduction estimation model, spatial design network analysis (sDNA), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), and partial dependence plots (PDPs). Results show that road network topological variables have the leading role in determining the potential GHG emission reduction of DBS trips, followed by land use variables and transit-related variables. Moreover, the nonlinear impacts of road network topological variables and built environment variables show certain threshold intervals for the potential GHG emission reduction of DBS trips. Furthermore, the impact of built environment on the potential GHG emission reduction of DBS trips is moderated by road network topological indicators (closeness and betweenness). Compared with betweenness, closeness has a greater moderating effect on built environment variables. These findings provide empirical evidence for guiding bike-sharing system planning, bike-sharing rebalancing strategy optimization, and low-carbon travel policy formulation.