Seafloor Subsidence Evaluation Due to Hydrate Depressurization Recovery in the Shenhu Area, South China Sea

Submarine hydrate mining can trigger geological disasters, including submarine landslides and seafloor subsidence due to excess pore pressure and weakened layers, which may potentially lead to the reactivation of faults and increased seismic activity. However, current research encounters challenges in assessing geotechnical issues associated with long-term and large-scale production from well grids located in sloped areas. Limited by the complexity of the hydrate sediment, a multifield coupled numerical model of hydrate slope in the Shenhu area was established. Utilizing the modified Mohr–Coulomb model as the constitutive model for hydrate-bearing sediments to track the dynamic reduction in strength and employing the shear strength method to assess submarine slope stability, a series of depressurization strategies are applied to evaluate the risks associated with submarine landslides and seafloor subsidence. Results show that the hydrate dissociation tends to stagnate after a period of mining. The strength of the hydrate decomposed area is severely reduced, and a volume deficit occurs in this area, causing formation displacement. The peripheral region of the decomposed area is compacted by high stress, resulting in a serious decrease in permeability and porosity, which limits the continued decomposition of hydrates. The large-scale submarine landslides with hydrates decomposition will not appear in this block. However, several meters’ seafloor subsidence over a wide range risks engineering safety significantly. The amount of seafloor subsidence in the first 50 days is approximately half of the final settlement. A higher production pressure drop can speed up the recovery rate while resulting in more significant seafloor subsidence and slippage. Therefore, the balance between mining speed and formation stability needs more research work.