Flipbook-ENA: Towards a dynamic Ecological Network Analysis under changing environmental conditions

• shifts in abiotic parameters can affect the structure and function of ecosystems. • Ecological network analysis lacks the ability to resolve these dynamic shifts. • new method “Flipbook-ENA” allows an approximation of corresponding system responses. • it provides a quantitative assessment basis for socio-balanced ecosystem management. Changes in abiotic parameters can affect ecosystem structure and function. Network models with subsequent Ecological Network Analysis (ENA) are often used for the quantification of ecosystem-wide properties with descriptive system indices. However, dynamic abiotic alterations of an ecosystem cannot be resolved with the “state of the art” ENA as the methodology of analyses is static in both space and time. In this study, we present a new, almost dynamic ENA “Flipbook-ENA” which allows for the trend analysis of system indices over a defined range of abiotic factors. Flipbook-ENA enables an approximation of the dynamic system response by discretizing the continuous influence of abiotic factors and by calculating the corresponding changes in the model for each discretization step. ENA indices are therefore obtained as a discrete function of the abiotic conditions. We applied this new concept to two aquatic food web models as case studies, using temperature as the influencing abiotic factor. Flipbook-ENA can be considered an enhancement of ENA flexibility, also facilitating the provision of a quantitative assessment basis for socially, economically and ecologically-balanced management of ecosystems in unstable environmental conditions under the pressure of climate change.