Digitalization and Spatial Simulation in Urban Management: Land-Use Change Model for Industrial Heritage Conservation

Contemporary post-industrial urban areas face opposing transformation trends: on one hand, abandonment or underutilization, and its replacement by new constructions and uses, on the other hand, the revaluation of the historical fabric and the implementation of initiatives to rehabilitate this legacy as industrial heritage. This study aimed to understand the factors that influence trends, and simulate land-use scenarios. A methodology based on three phases is proposed: digitization, exploratory spatial data analysis and simulation. Using the former textile district of Bellavista in Tomé (Chile), this study created and used historical land-use maps from 1970, 1992 and 2019. Meanwhile the main change observed from 1970 to 1992 was a 59.4% reduction in Historical Informal Open Spaces. The major change from 1992 to 2019 was the Historical Informal Open Space loss trend continuing; 65% of the land dedicated to this use changed to new usages. Consequently, the influence of two morphological factors and three urban management instruments on land-use changes between 1992 and 2019 was studied. The projection to 2030 showed a continued trend of expansion of new housing uses over historic urban green spaces and industrial areas on the waterfront, although restrained by the preservation of the central areas of historic housing and the textile factory.