Urban water consumption analysis through a spatial panel modeling approach: a case study of Mexico City, 2004–2022

ABSTRACT Urban water demand management has become a paradigm for approaching water scarcity in cities. Consequently, the need to understand urban water consumption has increased. Studies about this topic usually focus on either temporal or spatial dimensions, highlighting the relevance of spatial panel data analysis to conduct spatiotemporal modeling. This technique is useful for performing long-term analysis for water management and decision-making. Mexico City is an urban area where total water consumption and its spatiotemporal evolution are still unknown. We aim to model spatiotemporally measured water consumption during 2004–2022 at the neighborhood level through a spatial panel modeling approach, to select the best model to estimate total water consumption and compare it with urban water supply to Mexico City. Based on the spatiotemporal model coefficients, our estimation of total water consumption is 15.44 m3/s which is close to 18.52 m3/s, calculated by the local water utility. These values, compared to 30.05 m3/s of total urban water supply for the period 2004–2022, suggest the need to focus on promoting water management efficiency actions. Our contribution also addresses intra-urban patterns of water consumption, water users, and meter coverage in Mexico City neighborhoods.