Unveiling the spatial distribution and transboundary pathways of FMD serotype O in Western China and its bordering countries

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a severe, highly contagious viral disease of livestock that has a significant economic impact on domestic animals and threatens wildlife survival in China and border countries. However, effective surveillance and prevention of this disease is often incomplete and unattainable due to the cost, the great diversity of wildlife hosts, the changing range and dynamics, and the diversity of FMDV. In this study, we used predictive models to reveal the spread and risk of FMD in anticipation of identifying key nodes to control its spread. For the first time, the spatial distribution of FMD serotype O was predicted in western China and border countries using a niche model, which is a combination of eco-geographic, human, topographic, and vegetation variables. The transboundary least-cost pathways (LCPs) model for ungulates in the study area were also calculated. Our study indicates that FMD serotype O survival is seasonal at low altitudes (March and June) and more sensitive to temperature differences at high altitudes. FMD serotype O risk was higher in Central Asian countries and both were highly correlated with the population variables. Ten LCPs were obtained representing Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and China.