Spatial Variations in Relationships between Urbanization and Carbon Emissions in Chinese Urban Agglomerations

Urban agglomerations (UAs) are the main battlefield of urbanization and the most concentrated areas of carbon emissions (CEs). Nevertheless, limited studies have examined the impact of urbanization level (UL) on CEs in UAs in China. This study aimed to identify the spatial relationship between UL and CEs in Chinese UAs and to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the differences in CEs caused by urbanization. The findings would provide scientific support for the China’s dual-carbon goals and the achievement of green and low-carbon urban development. Spatial variations in UL and CEs in 19 Chinese UAs were assessed in 2000, 2010, and 2020 using distribution dynamics and spatial regression models. The results indicated that the UL of UAs in China evidently increased over time, and UAs contributed approximately 80% of the national CEs. Significant spatial dependence was identified between urbanization factors and CEs. The regression results indicated that an increase in UL promoted the growth of CEs, and the form of the urban land had a significant and highly variable impact on CEs. Our findings provide a valuable case study for exploring relationships between UL and CEs in other UAs worldwide.