From policy mix to pavement: Exploring individual actor-internal factors in zero-emission truck adoption

Despite regulatory efforts and market availability, the adoption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in the road freight sector is limited. This paper investigates the influence of managers' policy mix perceptions on the uptake of ZEVs in Sweden. Based on a survey of transport operation managers, we analyse the interaction between their perceptions of how technology-neutral the prevailing policy mix is, the anticipated regret of premature technology adoption, the rate of technology change and their mutual influence on the decision to delay ZEV adoption. The study's findings reveal a positive correlation between managers' perceptions of technology neutrality and adoption delay. We further explain the mechanism in this relationship by confirming that anticipated regret mediates the positive correlation between perceived technology neutrality and the ZEV adoption delay decision: The more technology-neutral the policy mix is perceived, the more anticipating regret over adopting ZEVs is expressed by the managers, which, in turn, increases the likelihood to delay ZEV adoption. Moreover, managers' perceptions of the rate of technological change affect their anticipated regret. The work contributes to the transition literature by unveiling how a specific policy mix perception, namely technology neutrality, could delay the adoption of ZEVs and calls for a nuanced re-evaluation of the current policy mix to facilitate a faster transition towards net-zero goals. It also underscores the importance of paying closer attention to how individual actor-internal factors (such as perceptions and emotions) of individual decision-makers in organisations may influence transition processes. • The study analyses zero-emission truck adoption delay in the Swedish context. • Perceived technology neutrality of the policy mix indirectly affects adoption delay. • Anticipated regret had a direct effect on adoption delay. • Perceptions of a fast rate of technological change increase anticipated regret. • Positive attitude towards ZEV characteristics and experience decreases anticipated regret.