Temperature and time of season are the predominant drivers of cabbage stem flea beetle, Psylliodes chrysocephala, arrival at oilseed rape crops

Cabbage stem flea beetle (CSFB) is an economically important pest of oilseed rape crops responsible for substantial yield losses in recent years, particularly since the restrictions on neonicotinoid seed treatment use came into force in 2013. To effectively time sowing dates and target control measures, it is crucial that accurate estimates of when migratory adult CSFB will arrive at the crop can be made. A Bayesian hierarchical model was fitted to data from 19 sites containing adult CSFB traps over a period of three years to characterise the relationship between the day of year, temperature, rainfall, wind speed and solar radiation on beetle counts and to understand their relative importance. Day of the year was identified as the main driver of migration and temperature was the predominant environmental driver of CSFB migration. A hot day (based on the range of observed temperatures over the trapping window) resulted in approximately 300% of the expected CSFB migration relative to an average day during peak migration. The second most important environmental driver of migration was wind speed, but this resulted in a relatively negligible increase of approximately 15% from an average day to a still day. These findings suggest that efforts to predict timing of adult CSFB migration should focus on understanding how the phenology of CSFB and temperature interact to drive the timing of migration. • Temperature is the main environmental driver of cabbage stem flea beetle migration. • Wind speed, rainfall and solar radiation had relatively minor effects on migration. • Understanding interactions between temperature and phenology is key to predict risk.