Predicting tremor improvement after MRgFUS thalamotomy in essential tremor from preoperative spontaneous brain activity: A machine learning approach

Magnetic resonance-guided focused ultrasound surgery (MRgFUS) thalamotomy is an emerging technique for medication-refractory essential tremor (ET), but with variable outcomes. This study used pattern regression analysis to identify brain signatures predictive of tremor improvements. Fifty-four ET patients (mean age = 63.06 years, standard deviation (SD) = 10.55 years, 38 males) underwent unilateral MRgFUS thalamotomy and were scanned for resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI). Seventy-four healthy controls (mean age = 58.09 years, SD = 10.30 years, 38 males) were recruited for comparison. Tremor responses at 12 months posttreatment were evaluated by the Clinical Rating Scale for Tremor. The fractional amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations (fALFF) was calculated from rs-fMRI data. Two-sample t-test was used to generate a disease-specific mask, within which Multivariate Kernel Ridge Regression analyses were conducted. Predicted and actual clinical scores were compared using Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) and normalized mean squared error (Norm. MSE). Permutation test and leave-one-out strategy were applied for results validation. KRR identified fALFF patterns that significantly predicted the hand tremor improvement (r = 0.23, P = 0.025; Norm. MSE = 0.05, P = 0.026) and the postural tremor improvement (r = 0.28, P = 0.025; Norm. MSE = 0.06, P = 0.023), but not action tremor improvement. Lobule VI of right cerebellum (Cerebelum_6_R), right superior occipital gyrus (Occipital_Sup_R) and lobule X of vermis (Vermis_10) contributed most for hand tremor prediction (normalized weights (NW): 2.77%, 2.40%, 2.34%) while Vermis_10, left supplementary motor area (Supp_Motor_Area_L) and right hippocampus (Hippocampus_R) for postural tremor prediction (NW: 2.69%, 2.12%, 2.05%). The low contributing NW of the individual brain regions suggested that the fALFF pattern as a whole is an overall predicting feature. Preoperative fALFF pattern predicts tremor benefits induced by MRgFUS thalamotomy. ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT04570046.