Defence Spending for Europe’s Security – How Much Is Enough?

ForumEuropean states have enjoyed three decades of peace and relative external security and have cut their expenditure on defence for many years.Russia's attack on Ukraine, however, has increased the geopolitical risks and called Europe for a reassessment of its own security and defence capabilities.Nevertheless, European NATO members still rely on security guarantees from the United States and have so far been unwilling and unable to provide Ukraine with sufficient military support or even to achieve capabilities to defend Europe on their own.The hesitant prioritisation of defence spending of European governments seems even more nave considering the current debate about concerns of changing relationships with the US (see Fuest, 2024).The leading superpower may be more protectionist and less supportive under the possible leadership of Donald Trump and his prospective Vice President J. D. Vance, both emphasising that several NATO members are free riders at the cost of US citizens and that Europe must be (more) responsible for its own security.Regardless of a second Trump presidency, the US -across party lines -expects Europe to spend more on its own security.The US contributes more than two-thirds of the overall defence spending within NATO, whereas defence capabilities of the European members would quickly be depleted without US support.The fact that Europe's security depends to an extent on the outcome of the US presidential election demonstrates the degree to which Europeans have neglected their own security interests -and this despite more than two years of Russia's war in Ukraine and aggressive threats of the nuclear power against Europe.Europe must urgently address the question of how to reduce its reliance on the US.Ultimately, it will only move forward by developing more autonomy and a credible programme for stronger European defence capabilities.But what would it take to make Europe more self-sufficient?How much should Europe spend on defence for sufficient deterrence and external security?And how can these targets be achieved?