Patronage loss and bicycles: Factors influencing mode transition from a strategic digital city perspective

Sustainability is a top priority for municipal administrations, particularly in large urban centers where citizens rely on transportation for work, study, and daily errands. Public transportation faces a significant challenge beyond availability, performance, safety, and comfort: balancing the cost for the city with fare attractiveness for passengers. Meanwhile, bicycles, supported by public incentives due to their clean and healthy appeal, compete with public transit. In Curitiba, the integrated transport system has been consistently losing passengers, exacerbated by the pandemic and the rise in private vehicle usage. To address this, the city is expanding bicycle infrastructure and electric bike rental services, impacting public transit revenue, and prompting the need for financial compensation to maintain affordable fares for those reliant on public transport. Therefore, this study’s objective is to analyze the bicycle’s impact on public transportation, considering the impact of public policies on economic and social efficiency, not just ecological and environmental factors. Data from six main bus lines were collected and analyzed in two separate linear regression models to verify the effects of new bicycles in circulation, bus tariffs, and weather conditions on public transportation demand. Research results revealed a significant impact of bus tariffs and fuel prices on the number of new bicycles that are diverting passengers from public transportation. The discussion may offer a different perspective on public transport policies and improve city infrastructure investments to strategically change the urban form to address social and economic issues.