Dueling effects: How integration policies and economic downturns affect the (uncertain) host population’s behavioral intentions toward immigrants.

People perceive immigration as a source of uncertainty in the host society, making them more susceptible
\nto the most extreme ideological messages that threaten a peaceful relationship between immigrants and
\nthe host population. One such message is the idea that immigrants threaten ingroup prerogatives. This, in
\nturn, is related to prosocial and contesting behavioral intentions (negatively and positively, respectively).
\nImplementing inclusive integration policies can create conditions for the institutionalization of norms that
\npromote tolerance and mitigate the negative effects of threat, which can be particularly relevant when the
\npopulation perceives an economic decline. We address this phenomenon by proposing an analytic model
\nthat predicts that the perceived state of the economy and inclusive policies moderate the impact of
\nuncertainty on realistic threat and prosocial and contesting behavioral intentions toward immigrants. We
\nused a 2 (self-uncertainty about immigration: high vs. low)× 2 (perception of economic conditions: decline vs.
\nstability) × 2 (integration policies: very inclusive vs. not very inclusive) between-participants design (N =
\n579). Results indicated that realistic threat mediated the influence of uncertainty on behavioral intentions.
\nImportantly, the results also confirmed the impact of an economic decline on participants’ realistic threat in
\nan uncertain immigration situation and showed that integration policy influences the relationship between
\nrealistic threat and prosocial and contestation behavioral intentions. We discuss the implications of these
\nfindings for the literature on the role of uncertainty and legitimacy in anti-immigrant attitudes.