Prognostic nomogram for the patency of wrist autologous arteriovenous fistula in first year

Autologous arteriovenous fistula (AVF) is preferred in hemodialysis patients. Maintaining its patency is a critical problem. This study aimed to create a nomogram model for predicting 1-year primary patency of AVF. Consequently, a total of 414 patients were retrospectively enrolled and randomly allocated to training and validation cohorts. Risk factors were identified by multivariable logistic regression and used to create a nomogram model. Performance of the model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and calibration curve. The results suggested that diameter of cephalic vein, low-density lipoprotein, glycosylated hemoglobin (%), and C-reactive protein were risk factors which could predict the patency of AVF. Area under ROC curves for training and validation cohorts were 0.771 and 0.794, respectively. Calibration ability was satisfactory in both cohorts. Therefore, present nomogram model could predict the 1-year primary patency of AVF.