Poisson Process with Linear Drift and Related Function Series

Consider the random process $Y(t)=at-\nu_+(pt)+\nu_-(-qt)$, $t\in(-\infty,\infty)$, where $\nu_{\pm}(t)$ are independent standard Poisson processes for $t\geqslant 0$ and $\nu_{\pm}(t)=0$ for $t<0$. The parameters $a$, $p$, and $q$ are such that $\mathbf{E}Y(t)<0$, $t\neq0$. We evaluate the sums $\varphi_m(z,r)=\sum_{k\geq0}(re^{-r})^{k}(z+k)^{m+k-1}/k!$, $m=1,2,\dots$, $z\geq0$, of function series with parameter $ r\in(0,1) $. These series are used for recursive evaluation of the moments $\mathbf{E}(t^*)^m$, $m\geq 1$, for the time $t^*$ when the trajectory of the process $Y(t)$ attains its maximum value. The results obtained are applied to the problem of estimating the parameter $\theta$ from $n$ observations with density $f(x,\theta)$, which has a jump at the point $x=x(\theta)$, $x'(\theta)\neq 0$. If $\widehat\theta_n$ is a maximum likelihood estimator for the true parameter $\theta_0$, then the limit distribution as $n\to\infty$ for the normalized estimators $n(\widehat\theta_n-\theta_0)$ is the distribution of the argument of the maximum $t^*_{\theta_0}$ of the trajectory of the process $Y(t)$ with parameters $a$, $p$, and $q$, which depend on both the one-sided limits of the density at the point $x(\theta_0)$ and the derivative $x'(\theta_0)$. In this case, by evaluating the moments $\mathbf{E}(t^*_{\theta_0})^m$, $m=1, 2$, one can estimate both the asymptotic bias for the maximum likelihood estimator and its efficiency.

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Publication Details

Journal
Theory of Probability and Its Applications
Published
2024-08-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1137/s0040585x97t99191x
Primary Topic
Stochastic processes and financial applications
Type
article
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article

Poisson Process with Linear Drift and Related Function Series

V. E. Mosyagin
Theory of Probability and Its Applications
Stochastic processes and financial applications
article

Poisson Process with Linear Drift and Related Function Series

V. E. Mosyagin
article en

Abstract

Consider the random process $Y(t)=at-\nu_+(pt)+\nu_-(-qt)$, $t\in(-\infty,\infty)$, where $\nu_{\pm}(t)$ are independent standard Poisson processes for $t\geqslant 0$ and $\nu_{\pm}(t)=0$ for $t<0$. The parameters $a$, $p$, and $q$ are such that $\mathbf{E}Y(t)<0$, $t\neq0$. We evaluate the sums $\varphi_m(z,r)=\sum_{k\geq0}(re^{-r})^{k}(z+k)^{m+k-1}/k!$, $m=1,2,\dots$, $z\geq0$, of function series with parameter $ r\in(0,1) $. These series are used for recursive evaluation of the moments $\mathbf{E}(t^*)^m$, $m\geq 1$, for the time $t^*$ when the trajectory of the process $Y(t)$ attains its maximum value. The results obtained are applied to the problem of estimating the parameter $\theta$ from $n$ observations with density $f(x,\theta)$, which has a jump at the point $x=x(\theta)$, $x'(\theta)\neq 0$. If $\widehat\theta_n$ is a maximum likelihood estimator for the true parameter $\theta_0$, then the limit distribution as $n\to\infty$ for the normalized estimators $n(\widehat\theta_n-\theta_0)$ is the distribution of the argument of the maximum $t^*_{\theta_0}$ of the trajectory of the process $Y(t)$ with parameters $a$, $p$, and $q$, which depend on both the one-sided limits of the density at the point $x(\theta_0)$ and the derivative $x'(\theta_0)$. In this case, by evaluating the moments $\mathbf{E}(t^*_{\theta_0})^m$, $m=1, 2$, one can estimate both the asymptotic bias for the maximum likelihood estimator and its efficiency.

Theory of Probability and Its ApplicationsVol. 69(2)
Openalex Percentile: Top 82%
Stochastic processes and financial applications
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Poisson Process with Linear Drift and Related Function Series — V. E. Mosyagin · Theory of Probability and Its Applications (2024) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS