Unsustainable prosperity? Decoupling wellbeing, economic growth, and greenhouse gas emissions over the past 150 years

• We examine decoupling between augmented human development index and greenhouse gas emissions since 1870. • Wellbeing-growth decoupling is more common in low-income countries, while growth-impact decoupling is more common in higher income countries. • Growth-impact decoupling, i.e., ‘green growth’, is not new nor exclusively Western, and has proved reversible. • No world region has reached a ‘safe and just operating space’ at any point in the last 150 years. Since the Industrial Revolution, modern economic growth has made the world increasingly (if unevenly) rich. This trajectory led to unprecedented improvements in human wellbeing but, at the same time, produced environmental impacts which threaten material prosperity itself. Against this background, the great challenge of the 21st century is to continue to improve global wellbeing while mitigating environmental impacts. For most international organizations and scholars this can be achieved by decoupling economic growth from its environmental costs (as in green growth proposals). However, other scholars question the feasibility of sustaining growth with a sufficiently large fall in its ecological footprint, arguing instead for decoupling wellbeing from economic growth (as in post-growth strategies). How common were these two forms of decoupling in the past? When and where did societies manage to separate wellbeing improvements from environmental impacts? The answers to these questions can allow us to trace the long-run direction of travel of the global economy and to rethink the historical narrative of the emergence and consolidation of modern economic growth by considering its impacts on human wellbeing and environmental change at the same time. We offer the first long-term analysis of decoupling patterns between an augmented human development index (AHDI) and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe). Moreover, we identify when these patterns were explained by ‘growth decoupling’ (GDP grows faster than GHGe), by ‘wellbeing decoupling’ (AHDI grows faster than GDP per capita), by both, or by neither. Our results show that at low income levels all world regions experienced episodes of wellbeing decoupling; as they became richer, growth decoupling became more common. Nevertheless, we find that such decoupling episodes have proved reversible and that no country in the world has yet managed to achieve very high levels of human wellbeing within planetary boundaries.