Modeling and Analysis of Lake Water Levels Using System Dynamics and Principal Component Analysis

Understanding the intricate dynamics of the Great Lakes water levels, shaped by environmental factors like rainfall and evaporation, is crucial for devising sustainable water management strategies. This study develops a model to manage the Great Lakes' water levels by analyzing the interconnectedness of the lake network. Utilizing principal component analysis, key variables like rainfall and evaporation were evaluated for their impact on water levels. System dynamics models integrated with flow conservation laws allowed for a detailed hydrodynamic assessment. The study introduces a "narrow seam method" for dry river scenarios, enhancing model accuracy. Annual water level trends from 2000 are depicted, offering insights into future water management practices in response to environmental changes.