Perspectives of Energy Transition in Poland with an Emphasis on Environmental, Economic and Technical Aspects

Abstract In this article four paths of energy transition in Poland were compared within selected aspects. Perspectives of reducing human, environmental and economic cost of power generation were main motivations. Research analysed Polish Energy Policy by 2040, its unapproved update, back-to-coal and zero-nuclear scenarios. These scenarios differed in available power capacities and energy production. Current policies are outdated and insufficient, since wind and solar power capacities in 2023 almost exceeded levels expected for 2035. In scenarios with a high pace of coal phase-out emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 , and NO x are notably reduced. CO 2 emissions per energy unit can decrease from 779 g CO2 /kWh in 2022 to 188 g CO2 /kWh in 2040. Rapid transformation scenarios had significantly lower cost of buying allowances in EU ETS. Without creating other capacities, power shortages may occur if Poland’s nuclear energy program proves unsuccessful. According to analysed scenarios, power gap might happen in late 2030s. Calculations and data visualisations were conducted in Python using custom scripts.