Climate Change Projections in Euphrates River Watersheds in the Middle of Iraq

Abstract This study investigated the climate change projections in the Euphrates River watersheds in the middle of Iraq. The LARS-WG model was used to simulate dry and wet spells during the winter and autumn seasons across a variety of local stations. The most suitable probability distribution models for the monthly rainfall and water balance data of the five stations were also identified. The SPI-12 index was used to identify and characterize drought events over a 12-month time scale. The projected SPI and SPEI values for the study stations in Iraq were also calculated under RCP4.5. The results showed that the LARS-WG model is a reliable tool for simulating dry and wet spells during the winter and autumn seasons across a variety of local stations. The most suitable probability distribution models for the monthly rainfall and water balance data of the five stations vary. Two of the stations follow the lognormal distribution, while the remaining three stations follow the Gamma, Weibull, and logistic distributions, respectively. Severe drought was observed during the years 2042, 2048, 2056, 2047, and 2050 in Hilla, Diwaniyah, Karbala, Najaf, and Samwa, respectively. The maximum duration of drought events is from 2050 to 2052 with a magnitude of -2.9, and 2056 to 2058 with a magnitude of -1.8 in Diwaniyah and Karbala, respectively. The findings of this study suggest that climate change is expected to have a significant impact on water resources in the Euphrates River watersheds in the middle of Iraq. Drought events are expected to become more severe and intense and are expected to last longer. This is likely to hurt different sectors in the region.