Fertilizer Price Surge in Poland and Beyond: Seeking the Way Forward towards Sustainable Development

The aim of this study is to explore the impact of the main determinants on the rapid increase in fertilizer prices in Poland and to foresee the consequences of this situation regarding sustainable policy developments. We developed linear regression models for N, P, and K fertilizers to show the direction of influence of explaining variables and make a decomposition of the fertilizer price increases. The models illustrate that four major factors were responsible for the fertilizer price increases in Poland in 2020–2022, i.e., wheat, gas, GHGE allowance prices, and domestic production volumes. These factors explained the variation in the price of fertilizers concerned with different strengths. There were also other impacts associated with the ‘black swans’ occurrence (the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine). High mineral fertilizer prices provide an opportunity to revise agricultural policy and legislation, taking into account environmental concerns and the latest technological developments. Fertilizer management practices are at the center of a triangle of critical objectives that track the progress toward sustainable agricultural systems, such as (1) an increase in farm incomes, (2) environmental protection, and (3) food and nutrition security. We recommend adjusting the set of explaining variables in the models (i.e., wheat/corn price) to the specificities of the domestic agri-food system. This study provides important guidance for agricultural policymaking, emphasizing the need to integrate sustainable fertilizer management practices to achieve synergies between economic growth, environmental protection, and food security. Such an approach can support the long-term development of agriculture in Poland and contribute to the economic and environmental stability of the agricultural sector.