Revealing the Nonlinear Impact of Human Activities and Climate Change on Ecosystem Services in the Karst Region of Southeastern Yunnan Using the XGBoost–SHAP Model

The Karst region is a critical ecological barrier and functional zone in China. Understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of its ecosystem services and its relationship with human activities and climate change is of importance for achieving regional ecological protection and high-quality development. In this study, we used the InVEST model and CASA model to evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of ecosystem services in the study area from 2000 to 2020. The XGBoost–SHAP model was used to reveal the key indicators and thresholds of changes in major ecosystem services in the study area due to climate change and human activities. The results showed significant land use changes in the study area from 2000 to 2020, particularly the conversion of cropland to construction land, which was more intense in economically developed areas. The areas of forest and grassland increased initially but later decreased due to the impact of human activities and natural factors. Habitat quality (HQ) showed an overall declining trend, while soil retention (SR) and water yield (WY) services exhibited significant interannual variations due to climate change. The changes in rainfall had a particularly notable impact on these services; in years with excessive rainfall, soil erosion intensified, leading to a decline in SR services, whereas in years with moderate rainfall, SR and WY services improved. Carbon fixation (CF) services were enhanced with the expansion of forest areas. The XGBoost–SHAP model further revealed that the effects of rainfall and sunshine duration on ecosystem services were nonlinear, while population density and the proportion of construction land had a significant negative impact on habitat quality and soil retention. The expansion of construction land had the most significant negative impact on habitat quality, whereas the increase in forest land significantly improved carbon fixation and the soil retention capacity. By revealing the mechanisms of the impact of climate change and human activities on ecosystem services, we aimed to provide support for the promotion of ecological conservation and sustainable development strategies in the study area, as well as to provide an important reference for areas with geographic similarities to the study area.