Definitive limitation of orbit prediction error for laser-based debris removal

We present an analytical formula to definitively restrict the orbit prediction error. In low earth orbit, millions of pieces of space debris are below 10 cm in size. One promising active debris removal (ADR) method for “lethal nontrackable (LNT)” objects is laser-based method. The recoil of laser ablation changes the orbit of the debris object. The laser must be precisely focused on the surface of the debris object. Because the relative speed of a debris object can reach 15 km/s, accurate orbit prediction is required. Our formula ensures that the laser is focused on the debris surface at the correct time and direction. We also evaluate the parameters in the formula, achieving an orbit prediction error of less than 1 cm 10 s after detecting a debris object. This formula can be used to design a specific laser ADR system for LNT. • We derive a formula providing an upper bound of orbit prediction error. • The formula is applied to medium size debris in a low Earth orbit. • The orbit prediction error can be less than 1 cm within 10 s. • The formula is useful to design a debris removal system using a high-power laser.