Impact of Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex on Mediterranean Precipitation

Abstract The Mediterranean precipitation has significant implications for the local ecology and human livelihoods. This study explores the impact of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex on the Mediterranean precipitation during the wet season (winter) using reanalysis data and large-scale ensemble experiments that are forced by anomalous stratospheric polar vortex states. Our findings reveal that total and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean region are increased under weak polar vortex (WPV) conditions and decreased under strong polar vortex (SPV) conditions. Moisture budget suggests that the changes in vertical motion over the Mediterranean play the dominant role in precipitation changes. It is further found that the tropospheric quasi-stationary wave train propagating from Greenland to the European continent is enhanced under WPV conditions, accompanied by warming advection over the eastern Mediterranean and vorticity advection in the upper troposphere over the whole region of the Mediterranean. Consequently, the vertical motion and precipitation there are enhanced. The southward shift of the Atlantic jet stream under WPV conditions leads to enhanced moisture transport toward the Mediterranean, providing a favorable moisture source for precipitation. In addition, the background baroclinicity in the lower troposphere around the northern Mediterranean is enhanced under WPV conditions, intensifying frontogenesis and cyclonic activities, which are commonly accompanied by intensified precipitation. These results are consistent with earlier literature and suggest that the changes in the stratospheric polar vortex may be used as a potential predicting factor for Mediterranean precipitation.