Spatial multi-objective optimization towards low-carbon transition in the Yangtze River Economic Belt of China

In the context of urbanization and climate change, optimizing land use patterns is fundamental for sustainable regional development and low-carbon transition. However, achieving sustainable land use patterns that support a low-carbon transition while maintaining economic prosperity remains challenging. Our goals are to develop a model for low-carbon transition and explore strategies for optimizing land use given future land use constraints. We propose a multi-objective optimization approach to explore land use transitions towards low carbon by considering emissions reduction, ecological protection, and economic development, taking Yangtze River Economic Belt of China was selected as a case study area for empirical research. Our research on Yangtze River Economic Belt of China from 2000 to 2020 reveals that the refined land use strategies, aiming at achieving a low-carbon transition by 2035, have the capacity to substantially reduce carbon emissions. Simultaneously, these strategies ensure the preservation of a higher ecosystem service value and enhance economic advantages. Our multi-objective optimized land use patterns reduce the emission growth by nearly 5% compared to the baseline. Meanwhile, our multi-objective optimized land use patterns demonstrate a nearly 7% growth rate in economic benefits and the ecosystem service value also shows slight improvement. Recognizing regional variations in sustainable land use patterns, we recommend customized local guidance towards aligning with these optimal outcomes. Our study offers valuable policy insights for regional land use to facilitate a low-carbon transition, which can contribute to navigating the trade-offs between carbon reduction, ecological protection, and economic prosperity.