Predicting Employee Absence from Historical Absence Profiles with Machine Learning

In today’s dynamic business world, organizations are increasingly relying on innovative technologies to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of their human resource (HR) management. Our study uses historical time and attendance data collected with the MojeUre time and attendance system to predict employee absenteeism, including sick and vacation leave, using machine learning methods. We integrate employee demographic data and the absence profiles on timesheets showing daily attendance patterns as fundamental elements for our analysis. We also convert the absence data into a feature-based format suitable for the machine learning methods used. Our primary goal in this paper is to evaluate how well we can predict sick leave and vacation leave over short- and long-term intervals using tree-based machine learning methods based on the predictive clustering paradigm. This paper compares the effectiveness of these methods in different learning settings and discusses their impact on improving HR decision-making processes.