Increasing drought sensitivity of plant photosynthetic phenology and physiology

• Plant photosynthetic phenology and physiology respond divergently to different seasons’ drought. • The sensitivity of SOS, EOS, and GPPmax to droughts exhibited notable increases over the last two decades. • The ESM accurately projected the drought sensitivities of SOS and EOS but overestimated that of GPPmax. • The increases in drought sensitivities of SOS and EOS are projected to intensify in the 21st century. Understanding the impacts of drought on plant photosynthetic phenology and physiology is essential for accurately predicting annual gross primary productivity (GPP) and global carbon cycles. While droughts in different seasons can have different effects on plant growth and photosynthesis, a comprehensive understanding of how plant photosynthetic phenology and physiology respond to different seasons’ droughts and their temporal changes is lacking. Here, we comprehensively evaluated the drought sensitivities of plant photosynthetic phenology and physiology and their temporal trends in the past two decades, using the start/end of the photosynthetic seasons (SOS/EOS) and peak GPP (GPPmax) derived from FLUXNET ground observations since the 1990s and remote-sensing data (2001–2020) over the globe. Our results show that spring droughts leads to delayed SOS in arid ecosystems and advanced SOS in humid ecosystems. In contrast, droughts in summer and autumn generally advance EOS. In addition, spring droughts decrease GPPmax in arid regions but increase it in humid regions, whereas summer droughts lead to significant GPPmax reductions. More importantly, we observed significant increases in the drought sensitivity of SOS, EOS, and GPPmax over the last two decades, which is driven by long-term decreases in background soil moisture and increases in atmospheric water deficit under climate change. Furthermore, these increasing trends were projected to persist in the 21st century under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 8.5 and 4.0. Overall, our findings underscore the critical role of drought timing in shaping ecosystem responses and highlight the growing vulnerability of ecosystem phenology and physiology to drought, which may restrict the increases in terrestrial carbon uptake under warming.