State of Wildfires 2023–2024

Abstract. Climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society and the environment. However, our understanding of the global distribution of extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage and regionalised research efforts. This inaugural State of Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying extreme events from the March 2023–February 2024 fire season. We assess the causes, predictability, and attribution of these events to climate change and land use and forecast future risks under different climate scenarios. During the 2023–2024 fire season, 3.9×106 km2 burned globally, slightly below the average of previous seasons, but fire carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totalling 2.4 Pg C. Global fire C emissions were increased by record emissions in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times the average) and reduced by low emissions from African savannahs. Notable events included record-breaking fire extent and emissions in Canada, the largest recorded wildfire in the European Union (Greece), drought-driven fires in western Amazonia and northern parts of South America, and deadly fires in Hawaii (100 deaths) and Chile (131 deaths). Over 232 000 people were evacuated in Canada alone, highlighting the severity of human impact. Our analyses revealed that multiple drivers were needed to cause areas of extreme fire activity. In Canada and Greece, a combination of high fire weather and an abundance of dry fuels increased the probability of fires, whereas burned area anomalies were weaker in regions with lower fuel loads and higher direct suppression, particularly in Canada. Fire weather prediction in Canada showed a mild anomalous signal 1 to 2 months in advance, whereas events in Greece and Amazonia had shorter predictability horizons. Attribution analyses indicated that modelled anomalies in burned area were up to 40 %, 18 %, and 50 % higher due to climate change in Canada, Greece, and western Amazonia during the 2023–2024 fire season, respectively. Meanwhile, the probability of extreme fire seasons of these magnitudes has increased significantly due to anthropogenic climate change, with a 2.9–3.6-fold increase in likelihood of high fire weather in Canada and a 20.0–28.5-fold increase in Amazonia. By the end of the century, events of similar magnitude to 2023 in Canada are projected to occur 6.3–10.8 times more frequently under a medium–high emission scenario (SSP370). This report represents our first annual effort to catalogue extreme wildfire events, explain their occurrence, and predict future risks. By consolidating state-of-the-art wildfire science and delivering key insights relevant to policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, and land managers, we aim to enhance society's resilience to wildfires and promote advances in preparedness, mitigation, and adaptation. New datasets presented in this work are available from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11400539 (Jones et al., 2024) and https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11420742 (Kelley et al., 2024a).

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Publication Details

Journal
Earth system science data
Published
2024-08-13
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024
Citations
167
Primary Topic
Fire effects on ecosystems
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
47.20

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article

State of Wildfires 2023–2024

John T. Abatzoglou, Jakob Benjamin Wessel, Morgane M. G. Perron, Gavriil Xanthopoulos et al.
167 citations
Earth system science data
Fire effects on ecosystems
47.20
article

State of Wildfires 2023–2024

John T. Abatzoglou, Jakob Benjamin Wessel, Morgane M. G. Perron, Gavriil Xanthopoulos, Paulo M. Fernandes, Andrew James Hartley, Liana O. Anderson, Tiina Kurvits, Joe McNorton, Louis Giglio, Stefan H. Doerr, Stacey New, Stijn Hantson, Mark Parrington, J. K. Shuman, Hamish Clarke, Guilherme Mataveli, Douglas S. Hamilton, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Chantelle Burton, Dolors Armenteras, Sarah Meier, Douglas I. Kelley, Seppe Lampe, Sander Veraverbeke, Sarah Harris, Rachel Carmenta, Matthew W. Jones, Sally Archibald, Eleanor Burke, Maria Lucia Ferreira Barbosa, Yuquan Qu, Guido R. van der Werf, Fiona R. Spuler, Niels Andela, Crystal A. Kolden, Emilio Chuvieco, Esther Brambleby, Bambang H. Saharjo, Veerachai Tanpipat, Jesús San-Miguel-Ayanz, Anna Lombardi, Piyush Jain, Natasha S. Ribeiro
article en
167 citations

Abstract

Abstract. Climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society and the environment. However, our understanding of the global distribution of extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage and regionalised research efforts. This inaugural State of Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying extreme events from the March 2023–February 2024 fire season. We assess the causes, predictability, and attribution of these events to climate change and land use and forecast future risks under different climate scenarios. During the 2023–2024 fire season, 3.9×106 km2 burned globally, slightly below the average of previous seasons, but fire carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totalling 2.4 Pg C. Global fire C emissions were increased by record emissions in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times the average) and reduced by low emissions from African savannahs. Notable events included record-breaking fire extent and emissions in Canada, the largest recorded wildfire in the European Union (Greece), drought-driven fires in western Amazonia and northern parts of South America, and deadly fires in Hawaii (100 deaths) and Chile (131 deaths). Over 232 000 people were evacuated in Canada alone, highlighting the severity of human impact. Our analyses revealed that multiple drivers were needed to cause areas of extreme fire activity. In Canada and Greece, a combination of high fire weather and an abundance of dry fuels increased the probability of fires, whereas burned area anomalies were weaker in regions with lower fuel loads and higher direct suppression, particularly in Canada. Fire weather prediction in Canada showed a mild anomalous signal 1 to 2 months in advance, whereas events in Greece and Amazonia had shorter predictability horizons. Attribution analyses indicated that modelled anomalies in burned area were up to 40 %, 18 %, and 50 % higher due to climate change in Canada, Greece, and western Amazonia during the 2023–2024 fire season, respectively. Meanwhile, the probability of extreme fire seasons of these magnitudes has increased significantly due to anthropogenic climate change, with a 2.9–3.6-fold increase in likelihood of high fire weather in Canada and a 20.0–28.5-fold increase in Amazonia. By the end of the century, events of similar magnitude to 2023 in Canada are projected to occur 6.3–10.8 times more frequently under a medium–high emission scenario (SSP370). This report represents our first annual effort to catalogue extreme wildfire events, explain their occurrence, and predict future risks. By consolidating state-of-the-art wildfire science and delivering key insights relevant to policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, and land managers, we aim to enhance society's resilience to wildfires and promote advances in preparedness, mitigation, and adaptation. New datasets presented in this work are available from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11400539 (Jones et al., 2024) and https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11420742 (Kelley et al., 2024a).

Earth system science dataVol. 16(8)
University of East Anglia (GB), Turing Institute (GB), Canadian Forest Service (CA), Ames Research Center (US), Natural Resources Canada (CA), Met Office (GB), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Vrije Universiteit Brussel (BE), North Carolina State University (US), Ifremer (FR), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (GB), University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro (PT), University of California, Merced (US), Université de Bretagne Occidentale (FR), The University of Melbourne (AU), Eduardo Mondlane University (MZ), Forschungszentrum Jülich (DE), Universidade Federal de São Carlos (BR), Universidad de Alcalá (ES), University of the Witwatersrand (ZA), Kasetsart University (TH), IPB University (ID), University of Exeter (GB), Norwich Research Park (GB), British Library (GB), European Commission (BE), Grid-Arendal (NO), Universidad Nacional de Colombia (CO), Swansea University (GB), Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (BR), UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (GB), WA Country Health Service (AU), The Alan Turing Institute (GB), Tyndall Centre (GB), Sphere Institute (US), Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer (FR), MAST Carbon (United Kingdom) (GB), Laboratoire des Sciences de l'Environnement Marin (FR), Ecosystem Sciences (AU), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR), University of Maryland, College Park (US), University of Reading (GB), Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (BR), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL), Universidad del Rosario (CO), Wageningen University & Research (NL)
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, UK Research and Innovation, European Space Agency, Sight Research UK, Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, China Scholarship Council, Westpac Scholars Trust, National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Natural Environment Research Council, Joint Research Centre, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Horizon 2020, H2020 European Research Council, HORIZON EUROPE Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 0%
Fire effects on ecosystems
47.20
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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