Simulation of wetland distribution in the Yellow River Basin based on an improved Markov-FLUS model

Abstract Wetlands, as a regulator of water cycle and balance, play a key role in preventing flood and drought disasters and protecting biodiversity. The Yellow River Basin is an important ecological barrier and economic zone in our country. By predicting the distribution of wetland landscape and evaluating its evolutionary characteristics, strategies for wetland conservation and utilization in the Yellow River Basin can be formulated. Future land use simulation model can not only simulate the change of multiple land use types, but also reflect the uncertainty of real land use change. In this study, the model was improved and used to predict future wetland changes in the Yellow River Basin. Using the wetland distribution data in 2000 as the initial data, and the wetland distribution data in 2015 as the validation data, setting the parameters according to the land use data of the Yellow River Basin from 1980 to 2000 and the wetland type transfer matrix, after verifying the applicability of the model, the spatial distribution pattern of wetlands in the Yellow River Basin in 2030 was simulated. This research shows that the cost matrix setting method based on the wetland transfer matrix can effectively avoid the errors caused by subjective judgment assignment. By 2030, the wetland distribution in the Yellow River Basin will remain stable, with marshes, paddy fields, and beaches as the main types, similar to 2015. Of all the regions in the Yellow River Basin, Zhengzhou had the highest rate of wetland loss, down 31.94%. On the contrary, Sanmenxia had the highest growth rate of 24.44%.