Jurisdictional risk assessment and implementation of theory of change to sustainable palm oil in Pelalawan District, Riau Province

Abstract The jurisdictional approach has been widely used to address multifaceted issues associated with commodity-driven deforestation. Risk assessment at the jurisdictional level is required to implement jurisdictional programs. We developed a risk framework and indicator to assess the risks associated with achieving sustainable palm oil, using Pelalawan District as a case study. Pelalawan scored 0.48 out of 1, with the highest risks in the percentage of deforestation driven by oil palm plantation in mineral forest and pressure due to demand by global trade/export. Risks that are not mitigated will hamper the district’s effort to achieve sustainability. Following the assessment, we brought together multistakeholder in a workshop to develop a common vision using the theory of change framework. This study introduces new ways to approach sustainable palm oil initiatives in the palm oil sector using risk assessment and a theory of change framework.