Epidemiological Model of the Regional Distribution and Analysis of Hepatitis B in Ghana: A Sub-Saharan African Country

Hepatitis B (HB) is a global public health burden which has impacted economies of many countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. The effect is worse where there is lack of definite information regarding policy direction and capacity towards implementing interventions to control the transmission and spread of the infection. In this study, a SEIR deterministic compartmental model and a hybrid optimisation method for parameter estimation, similar to that of Awuah-Mensah et al. (2022) , were used to analyse the regional distribution of HB in Ghana, a sub-Saharan African country. The regional epidemiological threshold parameters <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mfenced> <mml:mrow> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>R</mml:mi> <mml:mn>0</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:mrow> </mml:mfenced> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> and herd immunity threshold parameters <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mfenced> <mml:mi>H</mml:mi> </mml:mfenced> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> computed based on the estimated parameters for each of the regions ranged from a minimum of <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mfenced> <mml:mrow> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>R</mml:mi> <mml:mn>0</mml:mn> </mml:msub> <mml:mo>=</mml:mo> <mml:mn>1.3669</mml:mn> <mml:mo>;</mml:mo> <mml:mtext/> <mml:mi>H</mml:mi> <mml:mo>=</mml:mo> <mml:mtext/> <mml:mn>0.2684</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:mfenced> <mml:mtext/> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> for Volta region in the southeast to a maximum of <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mfenced> <mml:mrow> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>R</mml:mi> <mml:mn>0</mml:mn> </mml:msub> <mml:mtext/> <mml:mo>=</mml:mo> <mml:mtext/> <mml:mn>3.7212</mml:mn> <mml:mo>;</mml:mo> <mml:mtext/> <mml:mi>H</mml:mi> <mml:mtext/> <mml:mo>=</mml:mo> <mml:mtext/> <mml:mn>0.7312</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:mfenced> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> for Upper West region in the northwest of Ghana. These values of <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mrow> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>R</mml:mi> <mml:mn>0</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> and <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mi>H</mml:mi> </mml:math> indicated that HB persists in Ghana and the transmission and spread and the associated burden were found to generally increase from south to north of the country. Based on the estimated parameters, only Western region recorded a recovery rate of <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>ν</mml:mi> <mml:mo>=</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.0378</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> . The remaining nine regions recorded zero recovery rates. The trend of transmission and spread of the infection was also found to be positively related to poverty and health sector inequalities across the regions of the country.