Geospatial Modeling of Forest Fire Risk and Mitigation Strategies: A Case Study

This study models forest fire risks and predicts fire distribution using GIS in Izarène Forest, Ouazzane Province, Morocco. The A. Dagorne and Y. Duche model, combined with indices for topography, vegetative flammability, and human activity, was weighted and calibrated, achieving 91.67% accuracy. The maps showed 34% of the area, mainly the western, northwest, southern, and South Eastern regions, had extremely high fire risk, while 26% had low susceptibility. Additionally, 56% of the road network and 68% of the population were in high-risk areas, underscoring the need for effective forest fire management planning.