A Risk Assessment of the Vegetation Ecological Degradation in Hunshandake Sandy Land, China: A Case Study of Dabusennur Watershed

In the context of climate change, it is essential for sustainable development to assess the risks associated with climate change and human-induced vegetation degradation. The Hunshandake Sandy Land provides a variety of ecosystem services and is a substantial ecological security barrier in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei area of China. This study used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to analyze the spatiotemporal variation trend in vegetation in the Dabusennur Watershed using linear trend analysis and the GeoDetector model to identify the main drivers of vegetation change in the watershed. Finally, the study assessed the risk of ecological degradation in the vegetation of the watershed. The results show that the NDVI in the study area has had a fluctuating trend in the last 22 years, and the change has been small. Precipitation and groundwater depth are the key factors affecting vegetation change. The NDVI reaches its maximum value when the groundwater depth is at 2.75 m. The vegetation ecology of the basin is relatively fragile, mainly with medium risk and large risk. To cope with the ecological risk of vegetation degradation caused by climate change, appropriate water use strategies should be formulated to ensure ecological water use. The present study’s outcomes provide the basis for developing ecological engineering solutions in the arid and semi-arid parts of northern China.