Evolution and Effects of the Social-Ecological System in Karst Mountainous Regions: A Case Study of Guangxi, China

Karst regions are the typical areas of interaction between human society and natural ecosystems. Understanding the historical mechanisms of the evolution of social-ecological systems (SES) is crucial for the future sustainable management of karst regions. This study selected Guangxi, a typical karst mountainous region in Southwest China, as the study area, and used population, cropland area, and forest coverage as the SES elements. Based on the framework of SES research in the karst region, it adopted segmented linear regression to identify the stages of the interactions among these elements, to reveal the evolutionary stages of social development from the long-term perspective. In addition, the driving factor indicators were constructed from the aspects of natural environment, social development, government policy, and climate change, and then the feedback changes brought about by the evolution were investigated. The results show that the evolution of SES in Guangxi from 1363–2020 can be divided into seven stages. In the first, second, and early period of the third stages, the government of Guangxi mainly focused on agricultural activities, although the only way to meet the growing demand for food was by expanding the area of cropland, and the timber trade's pursuit of economic development, resulting in an increase in rocky desertification. In the fourth stage, the ecological environment improved under the implementation of measures such as the control of rocky desertification and the compensation of forest ecological benefits. After the fifth stage, the effect of rocky desertification control has been remarkable. Although the implementation of relevant policies has alleviated the environmental problems to some extent, the continual changes in the structure and function of SES can challenge further progress towards sustainability in karst regions. This study aims to provide a reference for the long-term national spatial planning and the development of environmental policies in karst regions.