Contributions of Social-Ecological Drivers to Land Use Transitions in Protected Areas on the Tibetan Plateau: Shifting from Strong Intervention to a New Balance

The establishment and management of protected areas (PAs) often involve modifying traditional land use rights and changing the production and living activities of locals, which can lead to changes in the factors that drive land use transitions. Our understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of land use transition and the contributions of social-ecological drivers remains incomplete. In this study, we focused on the Yarlung Zangbu Grand Canyon National Park and examined how social-ecological factors influence land use transitions by developing a theoretical model of land use transitions within PAs. Our findings revealed that cropland, shrubland, grassland, and wetland experienced net losses in area, while forestland, water, ice/snow, barren land, and impervious land exhibited fluctuating growth patterns from 1985 to 2020. The net decrease in grassland was 157425.60 ha, while the net increase in forest was 140709.20 ha. The quality of land habitat increased from 0.5158 to 0.6656. Land use dominant and recessive transitions displayed varying spatial characteristics and scales across different time periods. In particular, the degree of influence of policy factors on land use dominant transition declined from 0.0800 in 1985–1990 to –0.0432 in 2010–2020, while its influence on land use recessive transition declined from 0.00058 in 1985–1990 to 0 in 2010–2020. The results show that social-ecological factors intricately influenced different types of land use transitions, leading to a shift from a balanced state to a new equilibrium. These results enhance our understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns and complex dynamics of land use transitions within PAs, providing insights and practical implications for effective land management in PAs by considering the land-human relationships.